Lex专栏：星火何以燎原？
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏
2011年08月10日 06:43 AM


留意一下那些转折点。伦敦的骚乱（如今已蔓延至英国其它地方）是在一名犯罪嫌疑人被击毙之后开始的——那件事固然可悲，但通常不至于引发大范围的破坏。“阿拉伯之春”大规模抗议浪潮，也是由一个人的死亡所激发的。在金融领域，一家公司（雷曼兄弟）的死亡，把美国的一个严重问题转化为全球数十年未遇的最糟糕经济衰退。

在雷曼倒闭与伦敦骚乱的转折点之间，有三个令人瞩目的相似之处。首先是有一个易燃环境，随时可能被星星之火引燃。在伦敦，部分原因是不断上升的青年失业率（过去4年来，16-17岁青年的失业率飙升三分之一，达到36%），也许还包括社会不平等程度的加剧。在美国，这种环境可归因于杠杆率整体上升，基础利率在5年期间逐渐上调，以及不顾风险的放贷。

其次是群体心理。当一群人凝聚成一伙暴徒时（人们对彼此的非理性狂热予以肯定和怂恿），骚动就会变成一场骚乱。这既可以描述寻衅滋事的青少年，也适用于为了赶超竞争对手而疯狂投资高风险、高收益率证券的银行家。这其中的假定是，如果别人为了一件资产付出了高价，那么该资产肯定值这些钱，甚至更多。最后，金融业的暴徒一哄而散，大家抢着抛售。

最后一个相似之处是在转折点前后的应对力度不到位。宽松的治安管理放任——甚至鼓励——心怀不满的青少年投入打砸抢。这与如今已臭名昭著的“点到为止式”金融监管方式不谋而合。在这两个案例中，相关部门未能更早作出更强有力的回应，都助长了混乱局面。

要预测转折点几乎是不可能的。但通过采取行动使环境更安全，从而减少灾难的发生几率，还是有可能的。这意味着专注于基本面因素，而对流行趋势保持怀疑。无论是对政界人士还是对投资者来说，这都是一个教训。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/和风

2011年08月10日 06:43 AM
Lex_London riots: tipping points
Lex

Watch out for tipping points. The London (and now UK) riots started after the shooting death of one suspected criminal – tragic, but not normally the trigger for widespread carnage. The death of one man was the catalyst for the Arab spring uprisings. In finance, the death of one firm turned a serious US problem into the worst global recession in decades.

There are three striking parallels between the Lehman and London tipping points. First, a flammable environment, ready for a spark. In London, it was partly rising youth unemployment (the rate for 16-17 year olds has increased one-third to 36 per cent in the last four years) and perhaps increasing social inequality. In the US, it was an increase in overall leverage, base rates that slowly ratcheted up over five years, and reckless lending.

Second, group psychology. A disturbance turns into a riot when a crowd gels into a mob – people affirming and fuelling each other’s irrational frenzy. That describes both rampaging youth and bankers furious to keep up with rivals’ investments in risky high-yield securities. The assumption was that if others paid a high price for an asset, it must be worth it – or more. Then the financial mob turned and there was a frenzy to sell.

Finally, inadequate response before and after the tip. Light-touch policing allowed – or even encouraged – disaffected youth to go on the rampage. That mirrors the financial regulators’ now-infamous light-touch regime. In both cases, the lack of an earlier and stronger response encouraged more mayhem.

It is all but impossible to predict a tipping point. But it is possible to reduce the chances of disaster, by making the environment safer. That means being sceptical about popular trends and focusing on the underlying fundamentals. That is a lesson for politicians and investors.