房价下跌会抑制中国家庭消费吗？
WSJ2011年 11月 22日 09:19

中国的消费者大部分都是勤俭节约型的，他们并不是中国经济强劲增长背后的主要推动因素。中国居民近一半的家庭财富都和房产绑在一起，房价下跌会令中国消费进一步萎缩吗？大概不会。

首先，中国家庭购买房产使用的通常是现金，而不是贷款。在美国，不动产抵押贷款债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重在2007年就已经达到了103%。

在中国，家庭长期贷款占GDP的比重截至2010年底只有16%。在美国，房价下跌曾令那些以自身房产做抵押借入资金买房的家庭破产。但同样的情形不会发生在中国。

中国家庭可能不会破产，但如果房产价值下降，他们会感到自己的财富缩水了，这会抑制消费吗？

美国当年的情形正是如此。从2008年至2009年上半年，美国的个人消费水平出现下降。但中国可能不会出现类似情况。

房产在中国家庭资产中所占比重约为45%，其余大部分资产为银行存款。如果房价下跌20%，那么家庭财富将缩水约9%。

这听起来似乎是一种极端的状况。但我们可以回顾一下2008年的情形：当年股市崩盘令中国家庭财富蒸发了约7%，但当年的零售销售额实际增幅却高达17%。

对于年轻的专业人士和其他企图购买首套房的人士来说，房价下跌甚至有可能刺激消费。中国家庭在储蓄的时候头脑里都是有一个目标的。

对于一些人来说，这个目标可能是存够钱，确保退休后能够过得舒服；对于另外一些人来说，可能是为了存够钱买房。自然地，房价下跌降低了买首套房所必须储蓄的现金的数量，从而释放了部分现金用于消费。

房价下跌会给中国经济增长带来风险，房价大幅回调会抑制投资降低就业率进而改变整个经济发展状况。但房价适度下跌可能非但不会降低家庭消费，甚至可能会提振消费。

Tom Orlik

2011年 11月 22日 09:19
China's Robust Spenders

China's thrifty consumers haven't been major contributors to its remarkable growth story. With almost half of household wealth tied up in property will falling home prices make China consume even less? Probably not.

First up China's households tend to purchase their property with cash rather than credit. In the U.S. the ratio of mortgage debt to GDP rose to 103% in 2007.

In China households' long-term loans to GDP were just 16% at the end of 2010. A fall in property prices in the U.S. bankrupted families who had borrowed against the value of their home. The same will not be true in China.

China's households might not be broke but if the value of their property falls they will feel poorer. Will that dent consumption?

That was certainly the case in the U.S. where personal consumption fell through 2008 and into the first half of 2009. But maybe not in China.

Property accounts for about 45% of Chinese households' assets with bank deposits making up most of the rest. A fall in real-estate prices of say 20% would knock about 9% off household wealth.

That sounds extreme. But consider that in 2008 when a collapse in the equity markets wiped out around 7% of household wealth retail sales notched up real growth of 17% for the year.

For young professionals and others aiming to jump onto the first rung of the property ladder falling prices might even boost consumption. China's households save with a target in mind.

For some that might be enough cash to retire in comfort; for others enough to buy a home. A fall in house prices would naturally reduce the amount of saving required to get on the housing ladder freeing up funds for consumption.

Falling house prices bring risks to China's growth and a sharp correction that crunches investment and dents employment would change the game. But a moderate fall in prices might not hurt household consumption -- it could even give it a boost.

Tom Orlik