全球金融业过剩才是危机根源？
　　WSJ2011年 12月 09日 07:21
　　
　　
　　令人难以忍受，却又离不开。这就是金融体系存在的问题。
　　
　　市场与实体经济之间的关系遭到破坏。截至6月份，美国未偿债务总额约为50万亿美元，比国内生产总值(GDP)高出两倍多，债务包括房屋抵押贷款、公司债券、市政债券和美国国债等等。周四出炉的美联储(Federal Reserve)第三季度资金流报告将提供截至9月底的最新数据。
　　
　　债务总额实际上在2009年第一季度达到最高点，约为51万亿美元。到目前为止仅有小幅下降，这主要是因为政府大规模借债以便为各种刺激项目提供资金。这样做正是为了减轻私营部门债务削减对经济的影响，帮助美国走出衰退。相应地，国债如今占了债务总额的24%，较2008年的15%大幅上升。
　　
　　这凸显出美国当前的难题：如何在不引发再次衰退的情况下，减少债务总额。如果目前家庭、企业和政府债务占GDP 335%的比重看起来很糟糕，那么就设想一下，如果GDP收缩又将如何。如果名义GDP从当前的水平降低3%，债务占GDP的比重就会上升逾七个百分点，至342%。这正是紧缩措施带来的问题，也是过去18个月中希腊债务占GDP比重飙升而未下降的原因。
　　
　　走出这一困局的最佳方法是实现经济增长，正因为如此，美联储一直在寻求采取如此激进的宽松措施。不过，美联储的方法与目标相互矛盾。也就是说，美联储依靠金融行业创造信贷以获得投入实体经济的资金，而创造信贷正是问题的根源之一。实际上，普林斯顿大学经济学家Hyun Song Shin说，全球银行业过剩加速了金融危机，而不是像美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)所说的那样，是全球储蓄过剩加速了金融危机。
　　
　　问题是，收缩金融体系的紧迫性与促增长的紧迫性相互矛盾。你可以将其称为“大金融的悖论”：金融行业的规模已经大到具有破坏性的程度，但收缩金融行业却是痛苦的。
　　
　　Kelly Evans
　　
　　
　　2011年 12月 09日 07:21
　　Financial Sector Proves Too Big to Shrink
　　
　　Can't live with it; can't live without it. That is the trouble with the financial system.
　　
　　The relationship between markets and the 'real' economy has gotten out of whack. The amount of debt outstanding in the U.S. -- from home mortgages to corporate bonds to municipal securities to U.S. Treasurys -- stood at roughly $50 trillion or more than triple the size of gross domestic product as of June. On Thursday the Federal Reserve's third-quarter 'flow of funds' report will offer updated figures through September.
　　
　　The total amount of debt actually peaked in the first quarter of 2009 at about $51 trillion. That it has only fallen a bit since is owed to the leap in government borrowing to fund various stimulus programs. This occurred precisely to cushion the economy from the effects of debt-shedding in the private sector and to wrench the U.S. out of recession. In turn government debt now accounts for 24% of the total up from 15% in 2008.
　　
　　This goes to illustrate the nation's current conundrum: how to reduce the total debt burden without triggering another recession. If the current 335% ratio of household business and government debt-to-GDP sounds bad now just imagine if GDP were to contract. A 3% drop in nominal GDP from current levels would push that ratio up by more than seven percentage points to 342%. This is the trouble with austerity measures and is why Greece's debt-to-GDP has soared not declined over the past 18 months.
　　
　　The surest way out of this trap is through economic growth which is why the Federal Reserve has been pursuing such aggressive easing measures. But again its methods conflict with its goals. Namely the Fed relies on credit creation via the financial sector to get the money it creates flowing into the real economy -- and yet this credit creation was part of the problem in the first place. Indeed Princeton University economist Hyun Song Shin argues a global 'banking glut' precipitated the financial crisis not a global 'savings glut' as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said.
　　
　　The trouble is urgency to shrink the financial system conflicts with the urgency to boost growth. Call it the paradox of heft: The financial sector has become so large it is damaging and yet shrinking it is painful.
　　
　　Kelly Evans
　　
　　http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20111209/aot072537_ENversion.shtml