美欧正迈向二次衰退
前美国财政部副部长、Evercore Partners创始人及董事长 罗杰?奥特曼 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2011年09月30日 06:18 AM
 
 
美国、德国和英国的国债利率都已跌至历史最低水平。10年期美国国债收益率不到2%，创下自美联储(FED) 1953年开始发布市场数据以来的新低。10年期通胀保值国债收益率为零。这几乎是不可想象的收益率水平，带有深刻的负面含义。只有当市场预期资本需求和通胀水平将不值一提时，利率才可能被推低至如此水平。国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二的报告非常正确：美国和欧洲正处在经济衰退的边缘。

对于美国和西欧经济体来说，在失业率出于如此高位的情况下，再一次陷入衰退将是一场灾难。恐慌的消费者、企业和市场将进一步紧缩开支，加速经济下滑。疲弱的劳动力市场将雪上加霜，本已极为庞大的财政赤字和政府债务也面临同样的命运。

   总体而言，我们正面临1937年的历史重演的严峻危险——那一年，美国从大萧条(Great Depression)中复苏刚刚3年，就又再度陷入了衰退。不幸的是，对于利率的疯狂下降，我们找不到其它可信的解释。诚然，货币政策极度宽松，这控制了短期利率。避险心理也在起作用。但这些都无法解释当前的低利率。债市通常通过反向收益率曲线——长期利率低于短期利率——来预示经济衰退。从技术上讲，眼下不可能出现这种状况，因为短期利率已经为零。但近期长期利率的走势差不多具有相同的意味。

美国和欧洲近期的经济数据证实了这种严重危险的存在。美国家庭净资产再度下降，申请失业救济人数已连续数周攀升。零售销售持平，消费者信心在近代低点水平附近徘徊。在岸企业的流动性创下了13万亿美元的新高，表明企业对经济前景心里没底。

在大西洋彼岸，形势同样糟糕。第二季度，德国和法国经济都未能实现增长。同时，欧元区的家庭消费实际上有所下降。此外，欧盟委员会(European Commission)预计，整个欧盟地区的第三和第四季度经济增长率分别仅为0.2%和0.1%。而主权债务危机的恶化，无疑意味着实际结果将更加糟糕。

正是拖垮欧洲的主权债务危机，将美欧再次推到了悬崖边缘。这正使得主权债务发行、状况不佳的借款人和中小企业面临的信用环境进一步收紧。这也在进一步打压消费者和企业的信心，并使出口前景蒙上阴影。

这场看似永无止尽的危机本来是可以避免的。但在每一次机会面前，欧洲领导人都选择了拖延，只迈出尽可能小的步伐，而对“房间里的大象”视而不见。确实，所有人都知道，从德国开始，所有国家的政治形势都很艰难。但眼下，出现又一次雷曼(Lehman)式破产以及随之而来的经济收缩的风险已迫在眉睫。面对这种局面，欧洲领导人必须勇敢地正视这些政治问题。然而，他们不情不愿的渐进主义做法正在加大上述风险。这就是上周美国财长蒂姆?盖特纳(Tim Geithner)现身波兰所传递出的信息。

一种代表17个国家的单一货币，必然要求一份统一的资产负债表，以及某种形式的财政联盟。如今再也不能否认第二点的必要性。欧洲金融稳定安排（European Financial Stability Facility，简称：EFSF）现在必须成倍扩大，使之能够抵御更大国家——比如意大利或西班牙——出现的困难。

此外，必须扩大欧洲央行(ECB)的职权范围。和美联储一样，它应该负责维护银行业体系的健康和资本市场的稳定。这就要求它必须具备为银行直接提供融资——就像一些央行上周所做的那样——的常备能力。它还必须能够在二级市场灵活地买卖主权债务。这些改革必须辅之以强化整个欧洲范围内的银行监管。还必须加强EFSF向成员国提供直接贷款的附加约束条件。最后，鉴于目前还看不到通胀的风险，欧洲央行现在应该放宽货币政策。

美国也必须停止两党间的口角，启动最后一轮财政刺激。应该实施巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)规模为4470亿美元的就业创造计划，或者其他类似规模的快速行动计划。美联储也应该采取行动，推动信贷供给和放贷。

现在需要的是领导者的远见卓识。又一次衰退将对劳动力市场和公众信心造成极大的破坏。正如我们的先辈在20世纪30年代付出代价后才认识到的，创伤需要多年的时间才能完全抚平。我们必须不惜一切代价，努力避免这样的结果。

本文作者系Evercore Partners创始人及董事长，曾在前总统比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)时期任财政部副部长。

译者/方舟

2011年09月30日 06:18 AM
 Europe’s dithering is dragging America back to 1937
By Roger Altman
 
Interest rates on US German and UK government bonds have fallen to all-time lows. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are below 2 per cent the lowest recorded since the Federal Reserve began publishing market data in 1953. Yields on the inflation-protected 10-year Treasuries are zero. These are almost incomprehensible levels whose implications are profoundly negative. Only the anticipation of negligible demand for capital and negligible inflation – could drive rates this low. Tuesday’s International Monetary Fund report is quite correct: America and Europe are on the verge of recession.

For the American and western European economies to decline again when unemployment levels are already so high would be disastrous. Fearful consumers businesses and markets will retrench further causing economic decline to accelerate. Weak labour markets would get worsen as would already swollen deficits and debt.

Overall we are in serious danger of repeating the experiences of 1937 when America fell back into recession after three years of recovery from the Great Depression. Sadly there is no other credible explanation for the relentless fall in interest rates. Yes monetary policy is on maximum ease and that controls short-term rates. Safe haven psychology also is at work. However these cannot explain the current low. Bond markets usually signal recession through an inverted yield curve when long-term rates are lower than short-term ones. Technically this is now impossible now given short-term rates are zero. But the recent moves in long-term rates amount to the same thing.

Recent US and European economic data confirm this serious weakness. US household net worth has begun to fall again while jobless claims have been rising for several weeks. Retail sales are flat and consumer confidence is hovering around modern lows. Onshore corporate liquidity has reached a record $13000bn signalling businesses uncertainty over the outlook.

Across the Atlantic the trend is just as bad. Neither Germany nor France grew in the second quarter. Household consumption in the eurozone actually fell during that period. Moreover the European Commission forecasts only 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent growth across the region for the third and fourth quarter respectively. The worsening sovereign debt crisis surely means actual results will be worse.

It is the debilitating sovereign debt crisis in Europe that is pushing both regions back towards the brink. It is causing credit conditions to tighten again for sovereign credits weaker borrowers and small and midsized business. It also is suppressing consumer and business confidence and the export outlook.

The never-ending nature of this crisis was avoidable. At every opportunity Europe’s leaders have delayed taken the tiniest steps possible and averted their eyes to the elephants in the room. Yes everyone knows that the country-by-country politics are difficult starting with Germany. But the risk of another Lehman-like collapse and subsequent economic contraction is now extremely significant. Faced with this European leaders must confront these politics. Instead their grudging incrementalism is deepening the risks. This was the message behind Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s presence in Poland last week.

A single currency representing 17 separate nations inevitably requires a unified balance sheet behind it and following that a form of fiscal union. The time for denying the latter is over. The European financial stability facility must be now be enlarged exponentially so that it can stand squarely behind troubled larger nations like Italy or Spain.

In addition the mandate of the European Central Bank must be expanded. Just like the Federal Reserve it should be responsible for maintaining a sound banking system and stable capital markets. This requires a permanent capacity to finance banks directly just as a group of central banks did last week. It also requires the flexibility to buy and sell sovereign debt securities in secondary markets. These reforms must be accompanied by tighter eurozone-wide bank regulation and supervision. It also requires strong conditionality to accompany direct EFSF loans to member nations. Finally the ECB should ease monetary policy now as there is no visible inflation risk.

America also must stop its own partisan bickering and undertake one last round of fiscal stimulus. The $447bn job-creation plan by President Barack Obama or another quick-acting plan of similar magnitude should be enacted. The Fed should also move to promote credit availability and lending.

Now is the time for far-sighted leadership. Another recession would be profoundly damaging to labour markets and public confidence. It would take years to fully overcome as our ancestors discovered to their cost in the 1930s. We must try to avoid such an outcome at all costs.

The writer is founder and chairman of Evercore Partners and former US deputy Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton